Tanner Ehmke

The Quarterly: Historic Shift in Trade Policy Risks Long-Term Loss of Trust

April 2025

Businesses and markets grossly underestimated the size and scope of the administration’s tariff policies.

Spring Acreage Outlook: Corn to Gain Acres from Multiple Crops

February 2025

Corn remains king as prices and price competitiveness have increased over the last several months amid tight global stocks and an impressive export pace led particularly by Mexico, record ethanol production, and profitable feeding margins in the livestock and poultry sectors.

The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the U.S. Rural Economy in 2025

December 2024

Corn and Soybean Elevator Outlook: Strong Dollar and Policy Uncertainty Cloud Outlook for Demand

December 2024

U.S. farmers harvested the second-biggest corn and soybean crops on record this fall

Rising Electricity Demand, Supply Constraints Put AI Boom at Risk, Raise Worries Over Residential Rates

October 2024

Billions have been invested in generative AI with the expectation that big productivity gains will propel the U.S. economy in the years to come.

U.S. Soybean Export Sales Down, but Not Out

August 2024

The U.S. is entering the 2024/25 soybean marketing year, which starts Sept. 1, with an abysmal export sales pace for new-crop bookings.

As Inflation and Geopolitical Concerns Fade, Domestic Issues Come to the Fore

July 2024

The U.S. economy continues to perform reasonably well by most metrics, but the red-hot labor market of the last two years is finally cooling off.

Russia’s Smaller Wheat Harvest Expected to Drive Market Volatility

June 2024

While Russia firmly maintains its hold as the world’s top wheat exporter, Russia’s slippage in production and export capacity is expected to awaken the world wheat market to the extreme global tightness that has been building in recent years.

Sticky Inflation Puts Fed on the Horns of a Dilemma

April 2024

As we pointed out in our Year Ahead report in December, expectations that the Fed would cut rates six or seven times were completely irrational.

Rapid Expansion of Soybean Crush Capacity Risks Exceeding Growth of Renewable Diesel

March 2024

The push for renewable diesel is boosting demand for soybean oil as a feedstock.

The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the U.S. Rural Economy in 2024

December 2023

Despite multiple systemic shocks in recent years – COVID-19, trade conflict with China, the Russia-Ukraine war, surging inflation and interest rates – our economy has performed strongly.

Slow Farmer Selling Frustrates Elevators’ Acquisition of Corn and Soybeans

November 2023

In a world market awash in grains and oilseeds, the profit outlook for storing corn and soybeans in the U.S. is much improved for the 2023-24 marketing year with buy basis for elevators falling to more normal levels and with carries returning to futures markets. 

“Higher for Longer” a Drag on Rural Economy

October 2023

The Fed’s relentless 20-month attack on inflation has pushed long-term interest rates to their highest levels in years.

Russian Wheat Exports Remain Biggest Risk to U.S. Wheat Elevators

September 2023

Following an extended period of inverted futures markets, the outlook for elevators storing wheat has improved. Carry in the futures markets has returned and the buy basis has widened after a bigger U.S. wheat harvest.

Tour Reveals Risk to Soybean Crop, but Greater Potential for Soybean Oil

August 2023

Results of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour project smaller corn and soybean crops in the U.S. as drought and the record heat index lower yields, especially in the western Midwest.

India Rice Ban Will Benefit U.S. Rice Exports, Increase Market Volatility

August 2023

On July 20, the Indian government banned the export of non-basmati white rice to “to allay the rise in prices in the domestic market” stemming from threats posed by Black Sea geopolitics, El Nino and extreme climatic conditions in other rice-producing countries. The ban affects 7-8 million metric tons of Indian rice exports, or 15% of global rice trade.

The Slowdown-Resistant Economy

July 2023

Despite predictions for a slowdown, the U.S. economy remains the envy of the world. Jobs are plentiful, asset values are near all-time highs, and consumers are spending

Rising Cost of Carry Will Force Co-op Grain Elevators to Lower Bids, Widen Basis

May 2023

Grain merchandisers have endured rising costs of storing, or carrying, grain and oilseed inventories over the past year due to rising interest rates, high crop prices and rising operating costs like transportation, insurance, fuel, electricity and labor

Adapting to a Slowing Economy

April 2023

Effects from higher interest rates are permeating rural industries

Inflation is Beginning to Loosen its Grip

January 2023

The war in Ukraine and inflation will remain the two biggest factors for commodity
markets in the first half of 2023. 

Updating Make Allowances is Central to the Future of Federal Milk Marketing Orders

January 2023

Federal Milk Marketing Orders establish the minimum prices that regulated processors must pay for farm milk. 

The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the U.S. Rural Economy in 2023

December 2022

The Russia-Ukraine war, surging inflation, and an energy crisis joined the COVID-19 pandemic this year as major events defining the operating environment for U.S. companies. We can expect to feel the aftershocks in 2023. 

Vertical Farms Must Trim Costs, Hone Business Models to Achieve Profitability

November 2022

Although the concept of growing food indoors is not new, investment in growing crops indoors in vertically stacked layers has ballooned in recent years. The labor, health, and supply chain issues created by the COVID-19 pandemic has driven even more new consumer and investor interest.

The Quarterly: Inflation Abundance, Commodity Shortage

October 2022

Despite ongoing impacts from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and lingering supply chain
effects from the pandemic, the U.S. economy remains incredibly resilient.

CoBank Quarterly: Clouds are Forming

July 2022

Fears of higher rates and weakening economic conditions
linger over the year’s second half.

Record Butter Prices May Push Consumers to Cheaper Options and Slow Cheese Production

June 2022

Prices for retail butter are outpacing nearly all other goods — up 13% YTD according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — and the worry about its impact on demand is legitimate. 

COVID-19 Spiked Demand for High-Protein Whey, but is Growth Sustainable?

February 2022

The U.S. is one of the world leaders in whey production and exports. Technological advances have created new value streams beyond commodity whey. In the last 20 years, whey has been transformed from a cheese-making waste byproduct often spread on farm fields as a low-value fertilizer to a highly valuable co-product, driven by rising global consumer demand for protein.

The Quarterly: Omicron Upends Supply Chain Recovery

January 2022

Against all hope for a better start to 2022, omicron has crashed the New Year’s party. Renewed supply chain disruptions are being felt throughout the economy, causing empty shelves again and threatening to fan the flames of inflation.

The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the U.S. Rural Economy in 2022

December 2021

As we enter the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the virus is still in control of the economy.

The Quarterly: Adapting to Persistent Supply Disruptions

October 2021

Businesses of all sizes and across most industries are wrestling with perhaps the worst supply chain bottlenecks to date

Fragrant Rice: Opportunity or Threat for the U.S. Rice Industry?

September 2021

Since 1980, U.S. rice imports have grown from nearly zero to over 1.1 MMTs,while U.S. rice consumption has grown from 2.0 MMTs to nearly 5.0 MMTs. Nearly one-third of the gain in U.S. consumption has been satisfied by imported rice. 

The Quarterly: A Long Tail—Pandemic After-Effects are Just Beginning

July 2021

The long-awaited period of pent-up, exuberant demand is here. And for all the benefits to businesses and consumers, bumps are unavoidable – labor shortages, price inflation, supply chain disruptions, and uncertainty about what a new steady-state economy will look like. They loom large, even as we celebrate a return to normalcy.

US Dairy Processors Must Be Versatile to Compete in Southeast Asia

June 2021

Over the past decade, U.S. milk production has increased by an average annual growth rate of 1.5% while domestic demand has increased at a slightly slower pace.

California Tree Nut Outlook: Record Exports Expand Global Demand Base

April 2021

Lower tree nut prices and the weaker dollar have lifted tree nut exports to record highs as demand surged around the world, especially to China and 
the EU. 

The Quarterly: We’re Not Going Back to Pre-COVID Conditions

April 2021

Anticipation of a return to normal is in the air. But for the economy and rural industries, there will be no going back to pre-COVID conditions.

Dollar Divergence: US Dollar Index Does Not Reflect True Dollar Impact on US Ag Exports

February 2021

The U.S. Dollar Index saw rapid deflation in 2020 and has coincided with a rally in commodity prices. 

The Quarterly: New Year Optimism Confronts the Pandemic

January 2021

2021 has quickly altered the political and market landscape. And optimism, particularly about the second half of the year, is rising. But to get there, all of us must muddle through for a few months more.