Spring Acreage Outlook: Corn to Gain Acres from Multiple Crops

Tanner Ehmke

February 20, 2025

Key Points

• Corn has maintained an impressive price run in recent months while competing crops have struggled to maintain the same price strength.
• While farmers tend to stick to historical crop rotations for agronomic reasons and market diversification, corn’s price rally against soybeans, spring wheat, cotton and grain sorghum suggests a major shift in acres is in the offing.
• Low hay prices are also discouraging planting of competing roughages like corn silage. With silage acres likely to shift to corn for grain, the corn harvested acreage for grain number will rise.
• U.S. corn planted acreage is projected to be 94.55 million, up 4.2% YoY, with corn harvested for grain acreage up 5% YoY. Meanwhile, harvested acreage for corn silage is seen falling 8.2% YoY to 5.6 million.
• U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to fall 3.6% YoY to 84.0 million, spring wheat (excluding durum), is seen falling 5.9% YoY to 10.0 million, cotton acres are expected to fall 7.8% YoY to 10.3 million, and grain sorghum planted acreage is seen falling 9.5% YoY to 5.7 million.

Corn remains king as prices and price competitiveness have increased over the last several months amid tight global stocks and an impressive export pace led particularly by Mexico, record ethanol production, and profitable feeding margins in the livestock and poultry sectors. Corn is expected to pull acres from soybeans, spring wheat, cotton and grain sorghum, based on statistical regression analysis and conversations with cooperatives and merchandisers across the U.S. that market the major crops.

Corn acres are expected to climb 4.2% YoY to 94.55 million as corn gains acreage from soybeans, wheat, cotton, and grain sorghum. Notably, low hay prices are expected to shift acres out of corn harvested for silage to corn harvested for grain, raising the corn-for-grain harvested acreage to 87.06 million acres, up 5.0%, while even some perennial alfalfa acres in rotational transition may also migrate to corn-for-grain. 

While soybeans are expected to experience the biggest loss of acreage nationwide, the loss will be somewhat blunted by last fall’s expansion of winter wheat acres that will create more opportunity for farmers to double-crop soybeans behind winter wheat harvest. U.S. winter wheat acreage was tallied at 34.12 million acres, up 2.1% YoY, according to USDA-NASS.

Spring wheat acreage in the northern Plains is expected to fall 5.9% YoY to 10.0 million acres as wheat prices continue to struggle from a strong dollar and greater supply in the U.S. following last year’s bigger harvest. Most of the reduction in spring wheat acres will go to corn, though soybeans will also stand to gain some wheat acres. However, potential major losses to the Russian crop and losses to the U.S. winter wheat crop may quickly change the market dynamics for wheat with the world wheat balance sheet already historically tight.

Cotton acres are forecast to fall 7.8% YoY to 10.3 million with cotton prices continuing to struggle under the weight of a slowing global economy, growing concern over the Chinese economy, a strong U.S. dollar, and continued growth in competition from Brazil. The shift of cotton acres to corn will likely be greater in the Southeast than in the Texas plains. Texas cotton producers shifted acres to wheat and other fall forages for grazing cattle, which are currently trading at record high prices.

The loss of Chinese demand, which typically accounts for 90%-95% of grain sorghum’s annual export book, has pulled cash grain sorghum prices well below corn prices on the Plains. Although grain sorghum, or milo, has the advantage of being a low-cost alternative to other row crops, planted acres of grain sorghum are expected to drop 9.5% YoY to 5.7 million due to the lack of export demand.

Outlook

Planting season is still several weeks away, which means the acreage balance is still in flux. Multiple factors could shift how acres are traded around the U.S. For soybeans, tariffs on imports of used cooking oil from China and potential tariffs on canola oil from Canada would lift demand for soybean oil and encourage farmers to hold on to soybean acres.

For corn, volatile trade relations with neighbors to the north and south creates potential for trade disruptions and tariffs. A trade dispute with Canada may disrupt exports of U.S. ethanol to the largest export market accounting for nearly a third of U.S. ethanol exports. A disruption to the important Mexican market could severely impact corn shipments, accounting for more than 40% of all U.S. corn export sales. The potential loss of feed demand on the Plains to wheat and grain sorghum may also reduce demand for corn thereby weakening the demand for corn acres.

In wheat, drought and frost damage to the winter wheat crop in the Black Sea region may ignite world wheat prices with world stocks-to-use ratios already historically tight. A strengthening Russian ruble could also slow Russian wheat exports and shift export demand to U.S. wheat. Growing concern over the U.S. winter wheat crop in the central and southern Plains over drought and winterkill may also underpin a recovery in wheat prices and limit the loss of spring wheat acres.

Cotton remains at the mercy of a slowing world economy and weakening consumer demand. The continual growth in demand for synthetic fibers further frustrates cotton’s profitability. An economic recovery in China and around the world, or a shorter than expected crop in Brazil, may underpin cotton prices and protect acres from shifting.

Grain sorghum remains highly vulnerable to Chinese buying. As long as Chinese demand for U.S. grain sorghum remains tepid, falling grain sorghum prices will encourage a shift to corn. Livestock feeders, though, are opting to include more grain sorghum into feed rations and ethanol plants are using more sorghum for ethanol production. Higher domestic usage – and the potential for Chinese demand returning to take advantage of historically low sorghum prices – may lift prices and protect sorghum acreage from losses.