The Quarterly: Where Have the Workers Gone?

Brian Earnest , Tanner Ehmke , Jacqui Fatka , Rob Fox , Corey Geiger , Jeff Johnston , Emmie Noyes , Christina Pope , Abbi Prins , Billy Roberts , Lauren Sturgeon Bailey and Teri Viswanath

July 10, 2025

Lower fertility rates, declining labor force participation, and lower net immigration are combining to squeeze labor supply. With the labor supply in rural America set to get tighter, technology – most obviously AI and robotics – will likely be at the core of any strategy to address the oncoming labor squeeze.

Although the economy appears to be running well as evidenced by low unemployment and easing inflation concerns, consumer sentiment remains historically low. A major reason is the escalating cost of housing. The monthly cost of homeownership rose 60% between 2021 and 2024 and there is little hope of improvement anytime soon.

Crop prices remain in the doldrums with both the U.S. and South America enjoying favorable crop-growing conditions. The U.S. winter wheat harvest has been hampered by heavy rains, but crop yields are set to be the best in years. Export sales of the upcoming grain and soybean harvest remain sluggish amid ongoing trade uncertainty. Crop profitability is also being pinched by stubbornly high input costs and now fertilizer costs have started to creep up again. On the positive side, recent federal biofuel policy will likely give domestic soyoil demand a boost.

Significant revisions to the $42.5 billion Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment program will require a strategic reassessment by rural broadband operators. Given ongoing geopolitical unrest, the fact that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is perilously low has received surprisingly little attention.

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