Price plagues coffee, could stifle organic products’ growth

Billy Roberts

April 8, 2026

Key Points

• Away-from-home coffee sales suggest consumers are exploring a range of approaches to handle double-digit cost increases, including DIY.
• With 30% of all U.S. organic sales, produce maintains its lead in organic product market share.
• An increasingly K-shaped economy suggests the price of organic goods may well limit their ultimate audience to higher-income consumers.

Consumers explore beverages’ dirty possibilities

Coffee prices are having an impact on consumer behavior, according to sales data from coffee shops and beverage chains. Consumer price index data show coffee prices in February were 18.3% ahead of their year-ago level, and that increase is leading consumers to shift certain coffee behaviors. Options that are easy to prepare at home or get in bottled/canned form saw considerable declines in away-from-home sales, according to Toast. This includes declines of 3.3% for drip coffee, 3.4% for black tea and 4.9% for green tea.

Energy drinks are the exception, which saw an 8.7% YoY sales increase in 2025. However, two factors must be considered when evaluating away-from-home energy drink performance. First, the away-from-home energy drink market is relatively immature, with plenty of room to grow on menus. Second, energy drinks are getting a sizable boost from the dirty soda trend, in which baristas and consumers alike creatively mix sodas, energy drinks, teas and coffees in a variety of concoctions.

Menu penetration for dirty sodas is at 2% but growing by double digits, according to MenuData. The trend encompasses a host of flavor and ingredient inclusions, from candied fruit to flavored syrups to cream varieties including coconut and pineapple.

Organic growth in a K-shaped economy

Dollar sales of certified organic products reached $76.6 billion in the U.S. in 2025, according to the Organic Trade Association. Per the 2026 Organic Market Report, the sector recorded annual growth of 6.8%, effectively twice the 3.4% growth in the broader marketplace. Produce registered the greatest organic sales for the year, hitting $22.7 billion, accounting for 30% of the nation’s total organic sales. Within produce, organic berries again proved to be the largest segment, reporting a 10.5% YoY increase to reach $4.4 billion. Organic citrus and bananas also posted double-digit percentage growth (18.1% and 12.6%, respectively).

OTA surmises that consumers regard produce as an affordable entry point to organic, while also noting consumer interest in health and wellness continues to influence purchasing patterns. Organic may not be a health claim, per se, but buyers are trusting the authenticity and transparency that comes with the organic label. The report notes that younger consumers (Millennials and Gen Z) place a greater emphasis on production practices, sustainability and transparency in their food/beverage selection.

The association forecasts that overall organic sales will exceed $100 billion by 2030. Because organic products tend to fetch a higher price, this future growth may be linked to an increasingly K-shaped economy, where the top 10% of wealthy Americans are responsible for roughly half of all consumer spending, according to Moody’s Analytics, 49.2% in the second quarter, up from 46% in 2023 and 43% in 2020.

LendingTree research finds organic produce commands a 52.6% price premium over conventional counterparts. However, organic prices are not rising any faster than conventional prices (2.4% versus 2.5%). Even so, the high base price of organic products may limit demand to higher-income consumers in some categories — particularly those where lower-cost organic alternatives, including private label, are not yet widely available.