Rob Fox is director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange research division. He leads the team of economists that produces market and industry research in the agricultural and infrastructure sectors affecting the rural economy.
Prior to joining CoBank, Rob spent 13 years in food and agribusiness commercial banking. He has over 25 years of experience in a wide array of agriculture-related roles, in both private industry and the public sector. He started his career as an agricultural economist with USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, and later became a farm business management specialist with the University of Wisconsin Extension Service. Rob and his wife, Jennifer, also owned and operated a 125-cow dairy farm in western Wisconsin.
Rob earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Northwestern University and a master’s degree in agricultural economics from the University of California, Davis.
Expect higher energy costs to boost near-term headline inflation by about 1% and create lingering long-term inflationary effects. The spending tailwinds from the “wealth effects” of the escalating stock market and home price appreciation appear to be on pause for now. The combination of higher inflation and declining income growth will squeeze the bottom half of earners, hitting those segments of the economy particularly sensitive to discretionary spending.
Expect higher energy costs to boost near-term headline inflation by about 1% and create lingering long-term inflationary effects. The spending tailwinds from the “wealth effects” of the escalating stock market and home price appreciation appear to be on pause for now. The combination of higher inflation and declining income growth will squeeze the bottom half of earners, hitting those segments of the economy particularly sensitive to discretionary spending.
Rural Americans are absorbing some of the most acute fuel cost impacts from the conflict in the Middle East. They drive longer distances, lack public transit and rely on diesel-heavy industries like farming and freight, which quickly affect household budgets and business expenses.
Entering 2026, economic and policy uncertainties are much reduced from a year ago. Although a more pugilistic U.S. trade policy was expected from the new administration, the size and scope of the April “Liberation Day” tariffs sent stocks plummeting—the S&P 500 Index bottomed out 27% below its February high.
A forward‑looking analysis of the key forces shaping the U.S. rural economy in 2026, including interest rates, farm financial conditions, commodity markets, labor challenges, and macroeconomic trends influencing rural industries and agribusiness.
Despite rising fears, artificial intelligence is unlikely to spark a jobs apocalypse for recent college graduates.
Lower fertility rates, declining labor force participation, and lower net immigration are combining to squeeze labor supply. With the labor supply in rural America set to get tighter, technology – most obviously AI and robotics – will likely be at the core of any strategy to address the oncoming labor squeeze.
Mexico is on track to become the top export market for U.S. agricultural products, driven by strong consumer demand, competitive logistics, and shifting global trade dynamics that continue to reshape North American ag markets.
CoBank’s Q1 2025 Quarterly report examines the economic forces shaping rural America, highlighting key shifts across agriculture, energy, communications, and financial markets as the year begins.
While the U.S. economy continues to outperform earlier expectations — delivering solid growth, low unemployment and moderating inflation — the rural economic outlook is less certain
CoBank’s Q3 2024 Quarterly report analyzes key economic trends shaping rural industries, highlighting shifts in energy, agriculture, communications, and financial markets heading into 2025.
The U.S. economy continues to perform reasonably well by most metrics, but the red-hot labor market of the last two years is finally cooling off.
As we pointed out in our Year Ahead report in December, expectations that the Fed would cut rates six or seven times were completely irrational.
